Volatility Likely To Continue

Dated: 11/21/2016

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Nearly all of the movement in mortgage rates over the past week was related to the election. The U.S. economic data was a much smaller factor. Mortgage rates rose to near the highest levels of the year.Investors are trying to figure out the proper level for long-term bond yields in light of the expected changes under a Trump administration. Mortgage rates rose sharply over several days following the election. The market action over the most recent sessions suggests that investors may feel that yields are close to the proper level. While the daily movements in mortgage rates remain large, they have reached the point where the movement is in both directions, as opposed to only moving higher. It would not be surprising to see a great deal of volatility going forward, as investors continue to debate the expected effects of Trump’s policies on the economy.While it was overshadowed by discussions related to the election, Tuesday’s report on retail sales contained good news for the economy. After dipping over the summer, sales have rebounded strongly over the last two months. In October, retail sales rose 0.8% from September, well above the consensus. In addition, the September results were revised higher. Retail sales were 4.3% higher than a year ago. It should be noted, though, that one area of strength, spending on construction equipment, likely was the result of rebuilding after Hurricane Matthew. If this were the case, this would be a temporary boost.

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David Sarnowski

David is a seasoned real estate professional, specializing in residential sales, rentals and investment properties. David is a 15 year resident of the New Jersey Gold Coast, with the local knowledge n....

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