Rate Hike Less Likely

Dated: 06/11/2016

Views: 1491

A big miss in Friday’s key jobs report caused a significant improvement in mortgage rates. A new stimulus program from the European Central Bank (ECB) also was positive. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week near the best levels of the year.

The jobs report released on Friday fell far short of expectations. The economy added just 38,000 jobs in May, which was the lowest level since September 2010. In a speech on Monday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged the weaker jobs data, but Yellen cautioned against reading too much into one report. Other recent labor market data has been more positive, including wage gains, job openings and unemployment claims.

As a result of the weak job gains, investor expectations for federal funds rate hikes declined. Investors now assign very little chance of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting onJune 15, and they are close to evenly split about whether there will be a rate hike at either the July or the September meeting.

In March, the ECB announced an expansion to its quantitative easing program to include corporate bonds in the pool of assets to be acquired. The corporate bond purchases began on June 8, and the added demand from the ECB helped push bond yields in Europe to record low levels. U.S. bonds also benefitted from the implementation of the purchases, as global investor demand for the better yields available in the U.S. drove yields and mortgage rates lower.

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David Sarnowski

David is a seasoned real estate professional, specializing in residential sales, rentals and investment properties. David is a 15 year resident of the New Jersey Gold Coast, with the local knowledge n....

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