HOUSING CONFIDENCE JUMPS AS SPRING STARTS

Dated: 04/11/2018

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Confidence in housing jumped in March in the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI), with the HPSI overall posting 88.3, 2.5 percentage points higher than one month prior and 3.8 percentage points higher than one year prior.The boost was fueled by homebuyers preparing for real estate season this spring, says Doug Duncan, chief economist and senior vice president at Fannie Mae. The amount of buyers who believe now is a good time to purchase leapt to 32 percent—a 10-percentage point surge. “The HPSI’s recent run of volatility continued in March, as it recovered last month’s loss and remained within the five-point range of the past 12 months,” Duncan says. “The primary driver of this month’s increase was the sizable rise in the net share of consumers who think it’s a good time to buy a home, which returned the indicator to its year-ago level. On the whole, a slight majority of consumers continue to express optimism regarding the overall direction of the economy.”The amount of homeowners who believe now is a good time to sell shimmied up, as well, three percentage points to 39 percent. Across consumers, 42 percent believe home prices will rise, down three percentage points from one month prior.The HPSI is derived from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey® (NHS).Source: Fannie Mae


MORTGAGE RATES MOSTLY STEADY TO BEGIN THE WEEK BUT, VOLATILITY COULD BE AHEAD...THE ECONOMY: APRIL 10, 2018 Mortgage rates were steady to slightly higher to begin the new week, depending on the lender. Even in cases where rates rose, the increase was modest at best. The lack of drama is consistent with the week's economic calendar which essentially had nothing meaningful on tap today.Wednesday, by comparison, has much higher stakes. In the morning, The Department of Labor will release the most widely-followed report on inflation, The Consumer Price Index (CPI). This data, released once a month, has been one of the biggest sources of inspiration for rates over the past year. This time last year, CPI showed an unexpected drop in inflation. Because inflation pushes rates higher, that drop helped stave off what many saw as an inevitable push higher. Investors are anxiously waiting for another push higher in inflation. If we see that on Wednesday, it would put additional upward pressure on rates. If CPI falls short of expectations however, we could continue to see rates flirt with their lowest levels in more than 2 months.Ongoing Mortgage Rate Considerations:2017 had proven to be a relatively good year for mortgage rates despite widespread expectations for a stronger push higher after the presidential election in late 2016. While rates remain low in absolute terms, they moved higher in a more threatening way heading into the beginning of 2018The scariest part of the move higher looks like it ended as of early February, and rates have been generally sideways since thenEven so, the potential remains for more weakness (i.e. higher rates). It makes more sense to remain defensive (i.e. more inclined to lock) until we've seen a more convincing shift lower.Source: MBS Quoteline

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David Sarnowski

David is a seasoned real estate professional, specializing in residential sales, rentals and investment properties. David is a 15 year resident of the New Jersey Gold Coast, with the local knowledge n....

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